Risk assessment for the 2025 in-service verification (ISV) of CO₂ emissions of light-duty vehicles : risk assessment ISV 2025 according to Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866

Article 13 of Regulation (EU) 2019/631 requires the Member State Granting Type-approval Authorities to verify the CO2 emission and fuel consumption values of light-duty vehicles in-service. Commission Delegated Regula-tion (EU) 2023/2867 sets out the guiding principles and criteria for defining the procedures for that verification, while Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866 determines the actual verification procedures. Article 3(4) of the Implementing Regulation requires the Commission to set out a methodology for assessing the risk that In-Service Verification (ISV) families may include vehicles with a deviation in the CO2 emission values and to publish each year a report describing that methodology and listing those families with the highest risk of including such vehicles. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been tasked to perform the risk assessment on behalf of the Commission. When assessing the risk, at least the elements mentioned in Article 3(3) of the Implementing Regulation need to be considered, when available. The Granting Type-Approval Authorities (GTAAs) must use the Commission's risk assessment as a basis for selecting the families for their in-service verification. This is the second annual report describing the methodology used for the risk assessment, and the main find-ings. The risk assessment methodology described is built on the approach established in last year's report, using the concept of the Composite Risk Index (CRI). The CRI combines the probability and severity of a specific occurrence. Probability levels are determined based on the total number of new vehicles from the in-service verification family that have been placed on the Union market. For the severity determination, the data collected pursuant to Article 14 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/392 and the real-world data, as referred to in Article 3(3)(e) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/2866 have been used. In addition, the results from tests performed through the Commission's market surveillance test campaigns and from the in-service conformity tests pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2017/1151 are part of this year's risk assessment. This report identifies the ISV families with the highest risk of including vehicles with a deviation in CO2 emissions values. Based on the risk assessment, 333 unique interpolation families (corresponding to around 250 unique ISV families) have been identified. Additionally, some interpolation families reported as part of the annual CO2 monitoring for light-duty vehicles could not be found amongst those reported to the Commission under Article 14 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/392. As a result, 24 of those missing interpolation families have been selected and included in the list of families with the highest risk for the 2025 in-service verification. In addition, for those manufacturers that do not have any ISV families identified using the method described earlier and to ensure that at least one ISV family per manufacturer will be selected, the final list of families includes also 13 interpolation families based on medium risk or the highest registration volumes. In total, the 2025 ISV report identifies 370 unique interpolation families. To further support the vehicle and test selection for the 2025 in-service verification, each of the listed ISV families is marked for specific types of tests based on this risk assessment.