Risk assessment and compensation analysis of court decisions in compulsory land acquisition compensation cases in Australia

Purpose – This paper aims to assess all compulsory land acquisition court decisions in Australia over 1985‐2009 to provide a risk assessment and compensation analysis involved in proceeding to court for compulsory land acquisition cases. Design/methodology/approach – Using the AustLII legal database, every publicly available compulsory land acquisition court case decision in Australia over 1985‐2009 is assessed. These 58 court cases are assessed for claim, offer and judgment value. Findings – A total of 91.4 percent of compulsory land acquisition court cases over 1985‐2009 were found to be successful in achieving a judgment value of at least that of the offer. The median judgment value for successful cases was 60 percent higher than the offer value, while for unsuccessful cases it was 68 percent lower than the offer value. Successful smaller judgments (<$2 million) generated more upside compensation (median of 66 percent) than larger judgments (>$2 million) (median 41 percent upside compensation). Appealed cases were found to be only 28.6 percent successful, with only a maximum of 5.6 percent additional compensation achieved. Practical implications – This paper provides a rigorous empirical risk assessment and compensation analysis for compulsory land acquisition court cases in Australia over the last 25 years. This provides an effective tool for dispossessed property owners, statutory acquirers and their professional legal and valuation advisors for more informed compulsory land acquisition court case decision making. Originality/value – Using all compulsory land acquisition court decisions in Australia over the last 25 years, this paper is the first attempt internationally to rigorously and empirically conduct a risk assessment and compensation analysis involved with proceeding to court for compulsory land acquisition cases. Given the significance of the compulsory land acquisition process, this empirically validated research enables a more informed and critical understanding of the risk factors and compensation outcomes attached to the compulsory land acquisition court case judgment process.