SCENAR2020: Future of European Agriculture under Different Policy Options, the economic modelling framework

This paper identifies major future trends and driving factors and perspectives and challenges resultingfrom them for European agriculture and food sectors until the year 2020. The focus of the paper is ananalysis of key driving forces and the provision of a well developed reference scenario under theassumption of continued CAP reform and taking into account the framework discussions in the DohaDevelopment Round. To assess the impact of policies the paper also examines a liberalisation (nosupport) and regionalisation (max support) scenario. In terms of policy options the paper shows thatstructural change process in agriculture is a long-term process that continues with or without policychanges. EU is facing an increasing diversity of structure and structural adjustment. The livestocksector faces important challenges and restructuring. Alternative policy settings may not produce verydifferent effect on the overall production. However, the regional impact may prove to be moresignificant.