Scenarios for wind capacity deployment in Colombia by 2050 : a perspective from system dynamics modeling

Over the past few decades, there has been significant development in actions aimed at global energy transition, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector plays a significant role in this endeavor, contributing 76% of the world's total emissions. Considering electrification as an alternative promotes the deployment of technologies that use renewable sources, such as wind energy in coastal and offshore areas. In Colombia, wind energy alone has an accumulated technical potential of approximately 82 GW, mainly concentrated along the northeastern coast. Exploiting this technology enables the development of the national electrical system, reducing dependence on hydroelectric generation, strengthening the system against climate seasonality by ensuring supply security, environmental sustainability, and equitable energy access. Supported by system dynamics modeling, this paper presents four scenarios that explore possible futures for wind capacity deployment in Colombia between 2020 and 2050. It considers uncertainties in political and economic domains, as well as crucial national factors such as social acceptance, supply chain development, and transmission infrastructure. Favorable alignment of these factors towards wind diffusion could lead to nearly 29 GW of installed capacity by 2050, representing 40% of the projected total capacity of the electricity sector.