Setting climate targets based on scientific evidence and EU values : initial advice to the European Commission on an EU-wide 2040 climate target and a greenhouse gas budget for the 2030-2050 period

With this document, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (Advisory Board) provides an initial input to the European Commission on key principles to be considered in setting an EU-wide 2040 climate target and a greenhouse gas budget for the 2030-2050 period. Under the European Climate Law, the European Commission is required to make a proposal for the EU's 2040 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target and to publish a projected indicative 2030-2050 greenhouse gas budget in the first half of 20241. To prepare this proposal, the European Commission is expected to conduct detailed analysis including a public consultation and an impact assessment featuring modelling and scenario analysis. The Advisory Board has chosen to publish its first advice on this topic in early 2023 in order to provide a constructive and timely input in advance of the European Commission's preparations. Following the publication of this initial guiding input, the Advisory Board intends to publish quantitative advice within the first half of 2023, before the Commission finalises its proposal. This advice will consist of an indicative range of emission pathways for the EU, based on available modelling results selected in accordance with the principles and method described in this initial input, the associated interim target values, and a discussion of the implications of choosing between different pathways<