Simulating Agricultural Conversion to Residential use in the Hudson River Valley: Scenario Analyses and Case Studies

Land use changes threaten agricultural land. If agricultural land is going to be preserved, the social and economic causes of conversion must be understood. However, analyzing the causes of agricultural conversion is complex because trends need to be documented before analyzing the causes. One of the leading uses of agricultural land is for residential purposes. This paper projects residential development in a Hudson River Valley watershed within Dutchess County in New York State using an integrated modeling framework consisting of an econometric model, a geographic information system (GIS), and Monte Carlo simulation. The econometric model is used to project residential development, providing parcel-specific probabilities of residential development. The GIS is employed to extract socio-economic and county-level tax parcel data to be used in conjunction with bio-geophysical attributes, such as slope, soil, and location, to calculate and project growth trends on a residential level for undeveloped land parcels. Monte Carlo simulation is used to distribute these projections into the GIS to display outcomes of scenario analyses to provide policy-makers a demonstration of how policies would likely affect the agricultural landscape of the watershed. Copyright Springer 2005