Simulating and forecasting regional carbon emissions peaks : a modified Markal-Macro model approach

China has committed to peaking its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Determining whether a CO2 emissions peak can be realistically achieved under the existing conditions of the economy and energy structure is an important issue for the regional governments of China. On the basis of the carbon emission measurement results obtained via the electricity‒carbon model, two objective functions for both production process carbon emissions and energy consumption carbon emissions are established, and a modified Markal-Macro model is used to solve these functions. Using this modified model, the regional carbon emission peaks in 108 different scenarios are simulated and forecasted with Qinghai provincial data considering both energy consumption and production processes. The results of the study show that in the scenario in which energy consumption and energy prices in Qinghai Province evolve at the current rate (medium scenario) and the economy, emission reduction expenditures, and the share of energy consumption for the seven major industries evolve at a higher trajectory (high scenario), the total provincial carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2029, with the emissions from energy consumption peaking in 2028 and emissions from production processes peaking in 2029.