Simulating the effects of decoupled transfer payments using the land use model ProLand

This paper describes the bio-economic land use model ProLand and presents selected results for scenarios of coupled and fully decoupled Pillar One transfer payments under the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The basic assumption for the model is that land users select the land use alternative from a set of agricultural and silvicultural land use systems which is expected to generate the highest possible land rent. The model is used to estimate effects of fully decoupled transfer payments on land use in a less favoured region in Hesse, Germany. The results confirm that the CAP Reform removes the distorting effects of coupled transfer payments. The extent and direction of land use changes are spatially variant. Overall, the CAP Reform will lead to increases of permanent grassland area at the cost of arable land. The total agricultural land rent generated in the region will grow substantially, mainly due to higher amounts of transfer payments.