Simulation models for the analysis of space heat consumption of buildings

This study develops and analyzes an original methodology for the simulation and prediction of space heating energy consumption in buildings connected to a district heating system, characterized by lack of individual control systems for end-users. The identification of the input parameters is based on both classical engineering equations and statistical analysis of collected data. Two main factors play important roles in the model: (i) climate and (ii) human behavior. Model validation was undertaken through the analysis of field data collected during the winter, via a monitoring system working in a partially-controlled district heating system. The comparison between the results obtained with the proposed model versus classical methods points out the possibility to implement, using the proposed methodology, management policies for a district that offer significant cost-effective energy savings opportunities.