SOCIO-ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF DEVELOPMENT IN WORLD ECONOMY: 1820–2005

In this multi-country study, sample countries selected from each segment of development levels areanalysed in terms of demography, urbanization, economic policy, geographical location, natural resources, human capital, income distribution and several other factors. In a former study by the authors, that has been published in this journal, OECD countries, EU countries, transition countries, Asian countries and Middle-East countries had been analysed and compared in terms of their development paths and factors that determined their development levels such as real wages, foreign capital, trade, deficits and other economic factors. However, in this study, highest determinance is attributed to political stability. Sample countries are grouped according to their political stability index values. The sample is divided into three groups, the first of which is composed of developed and politically stable countries. The second group is formed by developing countries that experience political instability. The third group is made up of backward countries that suffer severe political instability and poverty. A cross sectional comparison is made among individual and groups of sample countries in terms of variables mentioned above. In application part, country groups are analysed by various time series and panel data methods. The data used in applications cover the period 1985 - 2004. Each country in the sample is analysed for co-integrating vectors in well known time series methodology. Consequently, panel unit-root and panel co-integration results are given. Finally, the table of panel ECM analysis is laid down in the part spared for application and empirical results.