Socioeconomic effects of DRAFT power marketing options of the Central Valley and Washoe Projects: 2005 regional economic impact analysis using IMPLAN

This report summarizes the methods and conclusions of an economic analysis of the distributional effects of alternative actions that Sierra Nevada could take with its new marketing plan. These alternatives are summarized in the agency`s Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), and this study directly supports the findings in the EIS. The study evaluates the potential economic impacts projected to occur across the northern and central California area currently serviced by Sierra Nevada`s customers. A standard input-output estimation approach was used to calculate impacts on regional output, labor income, and employment. The IMPLAN regional economic modeling system was used to develop regional models for the analysis. Individual regional models were developed for the overall area, the San Francisco Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area, the Sacramento Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area, the Redding Metropolitan Statistical Area, and the Bakersfield Metropolitan Statistical Area. The analysis relies on information about the effect of Sierra Nevada`s alternative actions on overall system power costs for the year 2005 developed by RW Beck and Associates (Beck-1996). This information is used as input to the 2005 benchmarked IMPLAN regional economic models. The resulting economic impact estimates are inextricably linked to this input information about changes in system power costs, and the estimates reported here are of similar relative magnitude to those estimates. The potential economic effects of Sierra Nevada`s actions are extremely small in relation to the size of the economies potentially affected, and, although they are calculable, they are not significant and often difficult to separate from random error present in the models.