Some Peculiarities of the Concept of Casuality in Macroeconometrics

This paper analyzes the philosophical underpinnings of the most relevant approaches to causal inference developed in macroeconometrics, from the Cowles Commission to the var program. The development of macroeconometrics in the last sixty years reflects a change of position regarding the concept of causality. Initially, by the Cowles Commission, this concept was conceived as something derived from economic theory and providing structure to models. Later, it was viewed as something that can be inferred from minimal background assumptions and statistically tested. Furthermore, this paper examines the connections between causality, stability and the problem of identification. There emerge some methodological tensions and lessons.