SOURCES OF BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS: COMPARING CHINA AND INDIA

This paper investigates the sources of business cycle fluctuations in China and India since 1978/81. Under the framework of a standard neoclassical open economy model with time-varying frictions (wedges), we study the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment and government consumption wedges on the business cycle phenomenon. This enables us to contrast and compare the two countries’ experience in a way remarkably different from previous studies. The results for both China and India show that efficiency wedge is the main source of economic fluctuations, while the investment wedge and government consumption wedge played minor roles in generating business cycles.