Spéculation et marchés dérivés du pétrole

This article provides economic and statistical tools to analyze oil derivatives markets, and more especially the “peak” in prices recorded in July-August 2008. The main explanations of the literature are summarized, by emphasizing current trends. Overall, this article highlights a new articulation between “physical” fundamentals of oil markets which have prevailed until the early 2000s, and the emergence of new “financial” fundamentals following the reforms of derivatives markets in the U.S. in 2003 and the rise of “non-commercial” agents on this market. Finally, some lessons of this recent experience are suggested through public policy recommendations in terms of regulating oil derivatives markets.