STOCCER - A Forecasting Market for the FIFA World Cup 2006

Forecasting markets are a promising approach for predicting future events. The basic idea of a forecasting market is to trade virtual stocks whose final value is tied to a particular future event. The market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of those future events. The results of recent studies on forecasting markets are encouraging. However, various design issues in such markets deserve further study. This paper outlines the design of our flexible market platform STOCCER wich can be used to tackle open questions in the field of forecasting markets. Based on the Market Engineering approach, we discuss different design possibilities. At first, we will use this market platform to set up a forecasting market for the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2006 in Germany which will certainly be one of the most watched events to come. The long-term goal is to thoroughly evaluate the potential of forecasting markets in new fields of application.