STOCHASTIC MODELING OF THE MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES - STUDY CASE: ROMANIAN ECONOMIC RELATIONS

The paper is analyzing the main tendencies in the Romanian economy after1990, trying to identify, which variables are influencing on long term the process of accessionto EU. Statistical analysis, nonparametric tests, regression analysis and particularly analysisof the main (principal) factor, applied for a system of aggregate measures, can determineclusters of ex-communist countries and allows us to establish the gap between Romania andother ex-communist countries. The paper is also developing possible scenarios for theRomanian economy. The study case is about the evolution of the main economic indicators forexternal relations for Romania in 1996-2006. The evolution is based on balance of paymentsand the major economic aggregates. The results shows us that the Romanian economy is notyet in order but some indicators are very good for a market economy.