Stochastic Stability of Public Debt: The Case of Austria

This paper extends a method developed by Hall (2014) to characterize the long-run distribution of public debt and applies it to Austria. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to incorporate data from other countries which makes the model applicable to cases in which available time series is short. We find that the long-run trend of Austrian fiscal policy is in line with the 60% threshold of the Maastricht treaty. Our results suggest that the strong increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio in the aftermath of the financial crisis represents a tail event which, given the long-run trend, does not provide a sufficient cause for rational investors to question the sustainability of Austrian public finances.