Structural Shifts in the Current Account of India's Balance of Payments

This paper explores structural shifts in the current account of India's balance of payments alongside the micro foundations from 1950 to 2008. Key structural features that emerge are the disappearance of twin deficits and the reversal of a unidirectional causality in the post-reform period from foreign savings to domestic investment. Current account deficit, although sustainable, is marked by a significant structural component after adjusting for remittances. Merchandise trade is characterised by higher quantity growth rather than price growth, a transition from low-technology to medium-technology exports, a shift in trade towards developing countries. Service exports exhibit reduced volatility and diversification from traditional to business and technology-related services. This period also witnessed a spatial shift in the sources of workers’ remittances from oil-producing to developed countries, with the overall behaviour of remittances influenced by the income effect in the host country, exchange rate movement and interest rate arbitrage.