Subjective Game Structures : a behavioral game theoretic analysis of hidden perceptions and strategic properties underlying the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Here, we apply a novel framework, termed Subjective Game Structures (SGSs), for uncovering and analyzing hidden motivations in ecological conflicts. SGSs enable the examination of implicit attitudes and motivations within individuals and groups. We elicited SGSs from Israeli and Palestinian participants between March 2019 and February 2020 (approximately three years before 7 October 2023), trying to answer the questions of whether Israelis and Palestinians perceived the conflict in a similar manner, whether they have identical assessments of the associated payoffs, and what can be done to reduce future hostilities and attain peaceful solutions. The results reveal meaningful differences between the parties. Israeli SGSs largely reflected expectations of mutually cooperative outcomes, while Palestinian SGSs exhibited ambivalence and a higher occurrence of confrontational expectations from both parties. Approximately 70% of Israeli SGSs and 40% of Palestinian SGSs were categorized as absolutely stable games, indicating that a meaningful portion of participants implicitly anticipated cooperative and mutually beneficial resolutions. Additionally, Palestinian participants' perceptions of strategic similarity with Israelis were considerably lower than the perceptions of Israeli participants, pointing to meaningful gaps in the alternatives each side was expecting the other side to choose. The discussion highlights the importance of enhancing subjective perceptions of similarity and shaping parties' perceived payoff structures as two key pathways to fostering peaceful interactions in diverse social and political conflicts.