The ECB survey of professional forecasters : forecast processes and methodologies : results of the 2023 special survey : survey conducted on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the ECB SPF

To mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a special survey was conducted in 2023 to explore the processes and methodologies underlying participants' forecasts. Participants were sent this fourth special survey on SPF forecast processes and methodologies in the fourth quarter of 2023 (after 100 rounds of the SPF and 25 years on from its inception in the first quarter of 1999). 1 This paper outlines the main findings and conclusions from the survey. The 2023 survey contained similar questions to those asked in previous special surveys, along with new questions addressing issues specific to the past five years. The questions repeated from the previous special surveys covered the use of economic models, the role of judgement and the relationship between different variables (such as inflation and activity, or growth and employment). The specific questions related to the pandemic, geopolitical developments (in particular Russia's war in Ukraine), extreme weather and climate change, and the period of high inflation in the euro area (from August 2021 to September 2023).