Tax-based marriage incentives in the Affordable Care Act

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced a premium tax credit to help low-income families purchase insurance and an individual mandate penalty to encourage purchasing insurance, but a couple’s total tax credit and mandate penalty may differ depending on whether they are married. We use a sample of married and cohabiting couples in the 2012-2017 American Community Surveys and leverage variation in the marriage subsidy created by the ACA’s premium tax credit, individual mandate, and Medicaid expansion. Using an instrumental variables approach, we estimate a significant though small positive marriage response that is robust to extensive controls and a placebo sample.