Technology Adoption, Bubbles, Network Externalities and Growth

This paper studies the effect of innovation uncertainty on the concomitant time path of firm valuations, technology adoption and growth in a setting which incorporates positive network externalities. The resulting stock market bubble, induced by uncertainty and accelerated by the externality forces, may serve as a coordination mechanism which compensates for un-internalized externalities, thereby supporting higher post-bubble growth. Such a path may also overcome some of the potential chilling effects attributed to network formation. Under the proposed framework, uncertainty may improve long-term growth. Associating a productive role to certain bubbles may have far-reaching policy implications