Technology and Innovation in World Agriculture:Prospects for 2010-2019

The objective of this paper is to assess prospects for increasing agricultural productivitythrough advances in technology and innovation in farming techniques for developed and selectivedeveloping and transition countries over 2010-2019. Over this period of time, the net impact ofclimate change is expected to be small, perhaps positive on cereal yields. However, environmentalconcerns (carbon dioxide release from bringing new lands into crop production and erosion onmarginal lands brought into crop production, additional agricultural chemicals applied, and lessbiodiversity) may grow if meeting future demand for food, feed, fiber and bio-fuels require theconversion of forests and pastureland to cropping. The paper first provides a review of agriculturalTFP growth for OECD countries and other large developing or transition economies. Second, adiscussion of the organization of science and technology for agriculture is presented. Third, newagricultural technologies for cereal, oilseed, and potato production and for livestock production arediscussed and their impacts assessed. Fourth, the contributions of public and private agriculturalresearch capital to agricultural productivity are summarized. Fifth, prospects for new agriculturaltechnologies primarily developed by the private sector over the next decade are described andevaluated. Although not everything is rosy for future developments of agricultural technologies forfarmers in developed countries to 2019, the combined efforts of public and private agriculturalresearch will provide a steady stream of new crop and to a lesser extent livestock technologies forfarmers over this time period.[...]