Tests of the efficiency of some Finnish macroeconomic forecasts: An analysis of forecast revisions

The efficiency of the forecasts made by the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy for the growth rates of the major GDP categories is studied. The efficiency tests are based on the correlation patterns of successive revisions of forecasts of the same event. The results show signs of inefficiency in some of the forecasts for GDP, exports, imports, and government investment and consumption. Alternative interpretations of such correlations include genuine informational inefficiency, smoothing of changes in the forecasts, and the effect of autocorrelation in successive data revisions.