The adoption of new technology under conditions of changing uncertainty: A competitive analysis

This dissertation examines organizational adoption of a high technology product in an intensely competitive environment characterized by changing levels of demand, technological, and regulatory uncertainty. It is argued that organizational adoption is a strategic decision, and that adoption is best measured along a continuum of commitment. Organizational variation in the timing and level of adoption is analyzed, explicitly considering uncertainty and competitive variables. Several concepts from the economics and strategic management literature are extended to models of organizational adoption. Specifically, the influences of competitive interaction, first mover advantages, and preemption, are examined. Additionally, two levels of competition, firm level and product-market, are proposed and their different influences on timing and depth of adoption are contrasted and tested. Finally, market level measures of timing of adoption are developed and compared to purely chronological measures which do not adjust for market boundaries, such as calendar time and the amount of time elapsed since the technology first became available. The differential effects of market and aggregate measures on models of the timing of organizational adoption are explored.