THE DEMAND FOR WHOLESALE BEEF CUTS BY SEASON AND TREND

This study estimates demand during the 1980-90 period for wholesale beef cuts by season and by trend. A data set containing monthly nominal prices for wholesale cuts and average choice boxed beef from January 1980 to December 1990 was collected from multiple sources. The approach expressed the change in demand for wholesale cuts as the change in the price ratio of individual cuts relative to the price of boxed beef. This approach shows changes in amount by season and over time relative to the average wholesale cut. Brisket, Armbone Chuck, Bottom Gooseneck, and Knuckle showed the strongest demand in winter and lowest in summer. Top (Inside) Round had a clear downward trend in demand, but the seasonal pattern was less pronounced and more erratic than the lower-priced cuts. Top Sirloin Butt had its highest demand in spring and summer with November-December being the lowest period. Strip Loin had the strongest warm season demand during the period which contains Memorial Day. Ribeye experienced a seasonal demand highest in November-December and lowest in January to April. Full Tenderloin was the most expensive wholesale beef cut analyzed in the study, and its demand was highest in November-December. The study clearly showed that a change in seasonal demand was responsible for the major part of price ratio fluctuations for individual wholesale cuts.