The Determinants of Brazilian Pulp exports from 1980 to 2001

This paper makes an econometric analysis of the determinants of Brazil’s pulp exports. The time period from 1980 to 2001 is considered for estimating a supply equation of pulp exports. Exogenous variables considered were: price of Brazilian exported pulp, production cost of Brazilian pulp, productive capacity, exchange rate between dollar and domestic currency and lagged pulp exports. It was observed that Brazil’s pulp exports have responded little to price fluctuation; however, these exports are strongly affected by productive capacity, exchange rate fluctuation and lagged pulp exports. Those results are consistent which the fact that a large share of market-oriented pulp production is headed to foreign markets and that production is sold to these markets partially independent of the current prices that are clearing pulp market. Key words: exports, pulp, econometric model, Brazil.