THE DIFFICULT TASK OF MAINTAINING CREDIBILITY

The study investigates whether the trend of declining targeted depreciation and diminution in the interest rates and inflation will continue in 2003, given the fact that the relatively high surplus on the forex market led in 2001 and 2002 towards real appreciation of ROL against the EUR-USD basket, thus decreasing inflation. In the situation of a negatively sloped balance of payments line, the Central Bank macroeconomic policy mix has to include a contractionary budgetary policy and the relaxation of the monetary policy, situation in which the strong economic trend may continue.