The Division of Unexpected Export Shocks

We exploit gaps between observed and recently forecasted GDP growth in export destinations to estimate the effects of unexpected export shocks on worker compensation. Using employer-employee panel data, we find that these export shocks are partly transmitted to workers in the form of higher average wages, especially close to the top of the within-firm wage distribution. These wage responses occur both in the form of higher overtime payment and base wage increases. We also find significant increases in bonus-related pay in firms managed by high-skilled managers, and the unequal average distribution of unexpected export revenues is also mainly driven by wage effects in the same subset of firms. This suggests that the way in which unexpected export shocks are transmitted to workers is significantly related to managerial capabilities