The Early Consequences of the Crisis on Fiscal Convergence in the EU

This article investigates the early signs of the impact of the 2008 crisis on fiscal convergence within the EU area. Over the 2004-2012 period we compare the convergence pattern before and after the crisis by considering the key fiscal aggregates and the main economic and functional components of total government expenditure. We show that the effects of the 2008 financial crisis have been transmitted differently on the fiscal frame in the EU area, signalling an overall tendency to diverge of the Periphery EU countries from the Core. In particular, it emerges a greater persistence among the Periphery countries of the backlash of the crisis on government budgets, causing a further divergence in the debt positions between Core and Periphery, and disarranging effects on government spending in the Peripheral countries, with crowding out of the productive components of public expenditure.