The ECB survey of professional forecasters : First quarter of 2025, January 2025

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised upwards for 2025 from the previous survey (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2024) and were largely unchanged thereafter. At the same time, core inflation expectations as measured by the HICP excluding energy and food (HICPX) were unchanged for 2025 and 2026 but revised slightly downwards for the longer term. Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, before ticking up to 2.0% in 2027. These expectations represent a 0.2 percentage point upward revision for 2025 but no change for 2026. Expectations for 2027 were not surveyed in the previous round. Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2029) were unchanged at 2.0%. Expectations for HICPX inflation remained the same for 2025 and 2026 but were revised down slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9%, for the longer term. Respondents continued to expect a strengthening of real GDP growth - to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in both 2026 and 2027. These figures implied a downward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 respectively. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%. Respondents' unemployment rate expectations were essentially unchanged for 2025 and 2026 but longer-term expectations were revised slightly downwards.