The Effect of a Deadly Epidemic on Firm Exports : Evidence from the 2003 SARS Outbreak

We estimate the causal effect of the 2003 SARS epidemic on firm-level exports in China. We combine a patient-level data set with a micro trade data set between 2000 and 2006. We construct two measures of exposure to SARS. The first measure is based on the exposure to SARS patients in firms' local communities or counties. The second measure is based on the exposure to SARS patients in firms' customs cities. We find that the customs-based SARS exposure measure---but not the local-based exposure measure---has a significantly negative impact on firm exports. Visibility of the geographic sources of the goods is a possible explanation