THE EFFECTS OF AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN TURKEY, 1987-2009

In this study the effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks on output and inflation in Turkey is investigated by structural VAR (SVAR) technique for 1987:1-2009:3 period. The results show that aggregate demand shocks have a considerable effect on output in Turkey although aggregate supply shocks have a relatively dominant effect on output. Furthermore one of the most important findings of this study is that aggregate demand and supply shocks are highly correlated in Turkey. These findings have important policy implications for Turkey.