The Effects of Disparate Priorities on Geospatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Facilitate the Renewable Energy Transition

The renewable energy transition is a priority for many researchers, policy makers, and political leaders because it is projected to stop the dependence of economic growth on increasing fossil fuel use and thus curtail climate change. This study examines how expert judgments affect development decisions to enable the renewable energy transition. Geospatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA) are frequently used to select offshore wind energy (OWE) sites, however, they are often weak and/or often rely on limited judgement. The Analytical Hierarchy Process is used here with 25 diverse experts to assess the variability in priorities for OWE siting criteria. A geospatial MCDA is implemented using experts’ individual priorities, aggregated weights and Monte Carlo simulations. Case study results reveal large variations in expert opinions and bias strongly affecting MCDAs weighted by single decision-makers. A group-decision approach is proposed to strengthen consent for OWE projects, underpinning the renewable energy transition