The Fertility Transition Around the World : 1950-2005

In this paper we analyze the distribution of fertility rates across theworld using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twinpeaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: ahigh-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the signicance oftwin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to existsover the whole observation period. In 1950 about two thirds of the world'scountries belonged to the high-fertility regime and the rest constituted thelow-fertility regime. By the year 2005 this picture has reversed. Within boththe low- and the high-fertility regime the average fertility rate declined, witha larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime.[...]