THE FORECAST OF FORMING THE GLOBAL SYSTEM INSTITUTIONS ON THE BASIS OF SIMULATION MODELING: THE MAIN PRINCIPLES

The phenomenon of states changes of the world economy during the last 200 years shows that there is a certain 70-year regularity in its development, which is expressed in increased structural complexity of the global economic system every 70 years. The development happens after certain periods of bifurcation (up to 50 years) accompanied by the lower rates of economic development, and periods of adaptation (up to 20 years) with the higher rates. The theoretical justification of this process shows that the increased structural complexity of the global economic system is the external manifestations of the self-organization process in a large complex system we call the “world economy”. This process of development is based on two fundamental laws of nature: the principle of minimum dissipation of resources, and the law of conservation of economic potential; and is realized via two types of development mechanisms – bifurcation and adaptation.Formation of the world system model should rest on applying the natural laws of development, and lead towards the creation of a complex, two-level (regional and global) structure with the institution of geopolitical pluralism, based on implementing the “principle of minimum dissipation”. This will contribute to the development of the “global system” on the conflict-free base.