The future European security architecture : dilemmas for EU strategic autonomy

This study first analyses the existing European security architecture, as it has emerged since World War 11. lt does so from ап organisational perspective, looking at NATO, the OCSE and EU defence policy, as well as from а series of national country perspectives, trying to find underlying motives for national defence policies. After looking at recent policy responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the pivotal years since 2022, five scenarios for а possiЬle future European security architecture аге presented and explored. These scenarios look in particular at the level of agency of EU Member States and the EU as а whole, also referred to as EU strategic autonomy, and the relationship between the EU and NATO. They also take into consideration the possiЬle outcome of the war in Ukraine, EU-Russia relations and US foreign and defence policy. The scenarios were tested in interviews with 15 security experts. Conclusive remarks and policy considerations indicate markers for future policy actions.