The Global Crisis and Human Development: A Study on Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS Region

This paper examines the observed impact of past economic downturns on human development indicators in 29 countries of the region. We estimate empirical elasticities of key human development indicators covering demographics, crime, epidemiology, unemployment, and poverty with respect to changes in per-capita purchase power parity (PPP) gross domestic product. Based on published gross domestic product growth projections from the IMF, we then project the likely impact on the human development indicators in coming years for the countries in the region. The results suggest that the adverse impact of past downturn in income on poverty, public health, mortality, and suicide and homicide rates is likely to be considerable, long-lasting, and to affect the poorest disproportionately. Based on our results, we argue that policy-makers will need better and more timely data to provide the evidence base for policies; and that those policies need to take into account the looming substantial backslide in human development indicators stemming from the global economic crisis.