The Impact of Chinese Climate Risks on Renewable Energy Stocks : A Perspective Based on Nonlinear and Moderation Effects

China’s energy stocks are confronted with significant climate-related challenges. This paper aims to measure the daily climate transition risk in China by assessing the intensity of climate policies. The daily climate physical risk encountered by China’s renewable energy stocks is also measured based on the perspective of temperature change. Then, the partial linear function coefficient model is adopted to empirically investigate the non-linear impacts of climate transition risk and climate physical risk on the return and volatility of renewable energy stocks. The nonlinear moderating effect of climate transition risk is also involved. It is found that: (1) Between 2017 and 2022, the climate transition risk in China exhibited a persistent upward trend, while the climate policies during this period particularly emphasized energy conservation, atmospheric improvements, and carbon emissions reduction. Additionally, the climate physical risk level demonstrated a pattern consistent with a normal distribution. (2) There is a U-shaped nonlinear impact of climate physical risk on the return and volatility of renewable energy stocks. High climate physical risk could not only increase the return of renewable energy stocks but also lead to stock market volatility. (3) Climate transition risk exhibits a U-shaped effect on the return of renewable energy stocks, alongside an inverted U-shaped effect on their volatility. Notably, a high level of climate transition risk not only increases the return of renewable energy stocks but also serves to stabilize the renewable energy stock market. Moreover, the heightened risk associated with climate transition enhances the negative impact of oil price volatility on the yield of renewable energy stocks and, concurrently, leads to an increase in volatility.The strength of this moderating effect is directly correlated with the level of climate risk