The impact of the Pacific Alliance on trade creation and trade diversion in the COVID-19 period : a robust econometric analysis

(1) Background: The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted global trade, posing challenges for regional trade agreements such as the Pacific Alliance, comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. This study investigates the Pacific Alliance's impact on trade creation and diversion during the pandemic, exploring how regional cooperation mitigated trade disruptions. (2) Methods: A quantitative approach utilizing econometric models, including ordinary least squares, Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, and the Heckman selection model, was employed. The gravity model of trade was applied to bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2021, incorporating COVID-19-specific variables to assess trade dynamics. (3) Results: The analysis revealed significant trade creation within the Pacific Alliance during the pandemic, with intra-bloc trade strengthening despite global disruptions. However, evidence of trade diversion from non-member countries was mixed and inconclusive. (4) Conclusions: The Pacific Alliance demonstrated resilience during the COVID-19 period, fostering regional trade creation and cushioning the impact of global trade shocks. While trade diversion remains uncertain, the study highlights the critical role of regional trade agreements in stabilizing trade flows during global crises, offering valuable insights for future policy and regional cooperation strategies.