The Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Migration in Vietnam

This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can influence individual migration decisions in Vietnam. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Doubling the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average reduces individual migration probability by 7.5 percentage points. This relationship could potentially be driven by individuals working in agriculture who are less likely to move due to higher agricultural income from more rainfall. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate the gender inequality in Vietnam since women lack the ability to cope with climatic shocks through migration