The PHD labor market: A primer

There are currently two major issues regarding Ph.D. scientists that are cause for concern. The first issue, adequacy of Ph.D. supply, follows from a general concern among educators and science policy specialists that the 1990s and beyond will usher in an era of general shortages for Ph D. scientists. These expected shortages are thought to be the result of: (1) Inadequate Ph.D. supply response to demand changes. Ph.D. supply has been hampered by declining federal support and increasing time to complete the doctorate. The long gestation period to produce a Ph.D. implies relatively unresponsive labor supply. (2) Increasing industrial demand in such areas as electronics, environmental control and biotechnology. (3) Increasing academic demand after several years of decline (the ``baby boom echo``). In addition, replacement of aging faculty is expected to accelerate in the next decade. The second major issue regarding Ph.D. scientists concerns a dismal current labor market. Levels of federal R&D funding growth, particularly for young investigators, have been declining. Retrenchment of public and private universities facing budget problems has delayed (or cancelled) faculty hiring. There is currently widespread alarm and concern in the US science establishment about the perceived decline in the availability of research funding and university faculty positions to sustain the existing stock of scientists in productive activities and to continue to ``send the message`` to the best young minds that science has room for them. The first issue implies a future shortage of scientists, the second issue implies a current surplus. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of Ph.D. labor market models and summarize the existing knowledge on the labor market for Ph.D. scientists and engineers.