The power and limits of data for peace : improving the EU conflict early warning system for more effective prevention

This Brief analyses the EU warning system's contribution to conflict prevention and discusses ways to strengthen it. The first section examines the factors that contribute to the success of the system. The second section suggests how the system and the EU's overall prevention approach can be further improved. Both sections hold lessons for developers of risk assessment and warning systems within and outside EU institutions. The Brief concludes by arguing that the European External Action Service (EEAS) should focus on expanding the methodological toolbox to include innovative foresight approaches. Together with the EU Commission, Member States and other partners, it should strengthen the link between warning and action to make sure analyses translate into meaningful, coordinated prevention.