The role of migration and fertility for the future size of the EU's population

The EU population is set to decline due to lasting low levels of fertility in the near future. Without migration from third Countries, the EU population would have started to decline already about a decade ago. However, the demographic landscape across Member States is complex: migration is accelerating population decline in many Eastern Member States, while slowing-down or even holding-off a decrease in population in some Western and Northern Member States. This report examines how fertility and migration, along with their interaction, contribute to population changes within the EU. It specifically looks at the impact of migratory movements within and from outside the EU. Our findings show that with an aging population structure and a diminishing proportion of young people, many Member States are on course for population decline in the coming decades, irrespective of short-term fertility rate improvements. While positive net-migration reduces the fertility level needed to prevent population decline, few Member States currently meet this threshold