The Sensitivity of Rice Yields to Weather Variation in Colombia

Rice is produced in 72% of the departments in Colombia. Recent extreme events have raised concerns about the relationship between weather and rice production, since aproximately 35% of the hectares where rice is grown rely exclusively on rainfall for the crop’s water needs. This study provides new insights from a panel dataset collected across departments that represent 98% of the country’s rice production. We estimate the effects of annual temperature and precipitation on rice yields in Colombia from 1987 to 2016. The analysis explores the degree of variation in response to climate changes across the country’s diverse topography. Since there are two growing seasons in Colombia, the effects of the weather conditions for these two seasons are independently investigated. Additionally, rice yields are projected for two periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, 6.5, and 8.0 of future climate scenarios. The results suggest that annual and early season temperatures have a positive effect on rice yields. The late season weather conditions do not appear to have a significant effect on yields. In addition, temperature has a positive effect on rice yields in departments with higher altitudes than the median altitude of the country. The results related to the impact of precipitation on rice yields are inconclusive. Forecasts suggest that, ceteris paribus, rice yields should increase by 7% on average over the period 2046-2065