The Statistics on Outbound Migration and the Demographics of Bulgarian Population

The paper discusses the statistical data on natural and mechanical movement of Bulgarian population during the last few decades. It emphasizes a number of inconsistencies due to the inaccurate and incomplete registration of outbound migration. The approach of age group movement is used for analyzing the differences between projected population figures and the latest census data. Thus it is possible to establish the extent to which current statistical reports on population differ from the actual situation as well as the extent to which census data can contribute to establishing the amount of unregistered migration during the period in question. The conclusion offered is that it is necessary to completely reconsider the concept of statistical monitoring of outbound migration, as well as make an analysis of current population figures reporting methodology. Some recommendations in that respect are also given.