The Tennessee Education Lottery Scholarship: A Reward for Past Achievement or Motivator for Future Performance?

The Tennessee lottery scholarship (TELS) program is intended to make college more affordable for young people in Tennessee, with the aim of increasing higher education enrollment and retention rates. One way to evaluate the effectiveness of TELS is to determine to what extent did the scholarship change student behavior? That is, does TELS induce desirable behavior that would not otherwise occur? Using a logit model to predict year-over-year college retention, we conclude that TELS has a positive, but small, effect on student behavior in Tennessee. The biggest impact of TELS occurs among continuing students, with no effect for first-time students.