The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions

The yield curve--specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill--is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.

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Year of publication:	1996
Authors:	Estrella, Arturo ; Mishkin, Frederic S.
Published in:	Current Issues in Economics and Finance. - Federal Reserve Bank of New York. - Vol. 2.1996, Jun, 7
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Subject:	Forecasting \| Recessions \| Treasury bills

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Extent:	text/html application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

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