The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime : Long Run Evidence 1875-1997

This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability

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Year of publication:	[2021]
Authors:	Bordo, Michael D. ; Haubrich, Joseph Gerard
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Zinsstruktur \| Yield curve \| Glaubwürdigkeit \| Credibility \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Geldpolitik \| Monetary policy \| Theorie \| Theory \| Großbritannien \| United Kingdom \| Schätzung \| Estimation

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
Series:	NBER Working Paper ; No. w10431
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments April 2004 erstellt
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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