Tourism, Climate Change and the Coastal Zone

Climate change, whether through increased temperatures or sea-level rise, is likely to affect the spatial and temporal pattern of tourism demand. Despite the cultural and economic importance of tourism and its overwhelming dependence on climatic factors, relatively few studies have tackled the impact of climate change on tourism. In particular there are few quantitative studies on the effect that climate change will have on tourism. The aim of this thesis is to fill the research gap and so provide information for the tourism industry and policy makers. Following a brief thematic introduction and statement of the aims of the thesis in chapter 1, chapter 2 provides background information on tourism, climate, the coast and climate change. The focus of chapter 3 is the role that information about the climate of destinations plays in the destination choice of tourists. Chapter 4 contains an application of the pooled travel cost model using data on the destination choices of German tourists. This data is also used in chapter 5, where it is segmented using phase in the life cycle; second, holiday motivation and holiday activities and region of residency. Chapter 6 examines the role that coastal and other landscape features have on the attractiveness of destinations for tourism. Returning to the international scale, chapters 7 and 8 extend the examination of the impacts of climate change to global tourism, modelling both the demand from countries and the demand for countries. In chapter 7, the Hamburg Tourism Model (HTM), a simulation model of international tourism, is introduced. In chapter 8, the HTM is extended to include domestic tourism and tourist expenditures. In the final chapter the relevance of this dissertation to the research field of tourism and climate change, to the tourism industry and to policy is discussed.